Lack of Premier League experience sees Villa fall fowl

Football’s a game where too many opinions can be drawn from one game. Robbie Savage will be happy with his prediction that Villa will go down this season. Alex McLeish will insist after Villa’s opening game that the claret and blue army need more
players. One of those is correct.

Yes, controversial as this might be, but big eck had a point. One that actually we all agree with, at the same time as knowing the Scot is a poor manager, also correct.

We’ve been complacent for too long: it’s time to stamp out obscene chanting

Whilst we prefer to focus on on-the-pitch matters here at the Football Water Cooler, recent events have suggested the need to have a think about the behaviour of the nation’s football fans. And @timwoffers thinks things need to change…

Have you been following the crusade of Times columnists Matthew Syed (one of today’s most intelligent and thought-provoking sports journalists around) and Simon Barnes against the bizarre behaviour of some football fans, whose aggression and offensive chanting during matches seems to know no bounds? The most vivid example in my own experience was when I sat in the Everton end when the Toffies visited the old Highbury on the day when Arsenal won the Premier League back in 1998.

Are we all dreaming of the Premier League?

A recent email exchange between the Water Cooler editors threw up an interesting question – are even the lowest amateur teams hoping to be repeatedly promoted until they reach the bright lights of our top division? In a world of overpaid prima donnas, managerial merry go rounds, foreign ownership, stadiums named after international brands and inflated transfer prices – do we still ALL dream of the Premier League? @GWoffer believes so, whilst Jack disagrees…

BCC Football: Nottingham Forest – is there life in the old dog yet?

Nottingham Forest have been in the headlines this summer for their appointment of Steve McClaren, welcoming back the former wally with a brolly into English football. Forest fan Brian is happy with this move, but otherwise isn’t feeling too hopeful about this season and Forest’s Board-level (mis)management…

George: First off, and the obvious one – how are you feeling about the appointment of McClaren?

Brian: It’s quite hard to express how I felt when McClaren was appointed, as I had become very attached to Billy Davies. In Billy I had a manager who for the first time in probably a decade wasn’t afraid to speak out against the club’s mismanagement in the transfer market and lack of funding going into Forest, and I feared that Steve Mcclaren had been hired to become the new ‘yes man’. 

It’s no secret that Nigel Doughty (Owner/Chairman) and Mark Arthur (Chief Executive) didn’t get along with Billy Davies, and these troubled relationships have been blamed in the press for the lack of Nottingham Forest transfer activity.  McClaren has been at our club nearly four weeks now and is already discovering that Billy Davies wasn’t moaning for his own good, and indeed Steve is already saying the same things which Billy Davies agonised over during his reign. Mcclaren told the Nottingham Evening Post:

“We have Portugal next week and it would be great to see new faces there but at the moment, we don’t have a squad big enough to work with. That is frustrating. We have lost nine players and added Andy Reid. So we are eight short. The sooner they come in, the better for me, the team and for the fans in order to get us ready for the start of the season.”

These are exactly the same arguments which Billy Davies had just phrased, but in a more subtle form.  For me we could have any manager in charge and they would be hampered by the same board level incompetence which has hindered Forest’s progression over the last two years, if not longer.

I am fully behind Steve; he is an astute, professional person and top coach, as he proved in Holland. He has come out fighting against the lack of transfer activity and already has many Forest fans on his side after a very split opinion about the appointment initially. Time will tell as to how he is accepted by the fans, but one thing is for sure – his job is being made no easier by the farcical state of affairs behind the scenes at Nottingham Forest.

George: So do you care about the saga of McClaren’s England management? Or is this a clean slate for him as far as you’re concerned?

Brian: I’ve cared very little about the English national team for many years now, so this is something for which I can honestly say I hold no hostility against Steve.  Greater managers than Steve have failed to turn that bunch of prima donnas into a successful team and I can’t see an end to that in the near future.  To be honest, the plight of the England national team is very similar to Forest’s, a team who consider themselves to be one of the biggest, best supported and carry a fantastic history, yet always flatter to deceive whenever it really matters.   

George: Anyone you would have preferred?

Brian: That’s a tough question, as Steve McClaren is truly an appointment above our level at the present time.  He’s an ex-England manager, FA Cup winner and Dutch title winner with Twente, has a great coaching pedigree and extensive contact list in football, and I am more than happy with his appointment.

If I had to pick another manager though, it would probably have been Martin O’Neill who is a true Forest legend and would instantly have had the backing of every Forest fan, but as I have mentioned I think we have appointed above and beyond our current level.

George: Is this the consensus amongst Forest fans? What’s the general feeling on the blogs from fans towards him?

Brian: Very mixed. There seems to be two reasons for the more negative attitudes towards his appointment.  

The first is that Billy Davies saved us from relegation and guided us to successive play-offs, the fans never really wanted him sacked and it was very clear the parting of Nottingham Forest and Billy Davies was due to differences in personality between Doughty, Arthur and Davies.

The second is that many do still see him as the failed England manager.  In my opinion these are short-sighted fans who have probably jumped on the tabloid press bandwagons after the disappointment of that rainy night at Wembley. Slowly I hope they will realise what a top coach he is, and provided he doesn’t have to start the season with 14 players he should take forest on another level.

George: So we’ve covered the manager, but how would you assess the general state of the club, financially, board members, backing?

Brian: I could write a dissertation around this area and it s one of the most frustrating things about being a Forest fan. The club financially is being supported by our wealthy owner Nigel Doughty and is in the region of £60m in debt, all of which is tied to loans from him with yearly delaying of repayment – meaning that in the grand scheme of events we are pretty stable. There are many opinions about the financial running of the club and the chief executive (Mark Arthur) constantly reminds the fans that the club runs a £13m+ debt per season, while the chairman claims we are one of the only clubs in the championship with money to spend. We never know the whole truth.

The set-up behind the scenes is one of the worst things about Forest and this includes the Transfer Acquisitions Panel (TAP).  Mark Arthur seems to constantly embarrass Nottingham Forest and its fans with his nonchalant attitude towards, seemingly, every deal that we try to finalise and constant failure to recruit the right playing staff, infamously stating on the radio last summer that “We know Darren Pratley wants to join us”, only to never conclude the deal.

The TAP is a committee made up of Nigel Doughty, Mark Arthur, John Pelling, Steve McClaren and David Pleat (who is rumoured to take home a six figure salary from Forest for “consultancy advice”) and in my opinion the TAP is everything that is wrong with Nottingham forest.  Steve McClaren will advise who he wants to sign but then the TAP discuss whether they want said player and then Mark Arthur negotiates a deal. The latest rumours of its failings are that a deal was agreed for Wayne Routledge with his wages agreed at £12k p/w, but Mark Arthur offered £8k at the last minute and the deal went south (only a rumour mind)!

The financial backing of our managers has been all but nonexistent over the last three transfer windows. Billy Davies saw January 2010 and the summer of 2010 come and go with no permanent signings and only Marcus Tudgay coming in January 2011 for £400k (even he was only deemed necessary as Dexter Blackstock got injured for the season), so overall the backing of managers in the transfer market leaves much to be desired.

George: So you don’t expect a busy transfer window this summer?

Brian: So it seems, but it should be.  I’m pulling my hair out about what is happening at the City ground this summer. With nine players being released on free transfers and only one arrival, in Steve Mcclarens own words “we are 8 players short” – it is all very concerning.

George: So which are the absolute priority signings you need?

Brian: We NEED a left-back as we do not have a professional out-and-out left back on our books at Forest, we actually haven’t for over 2 years now as we have made do with loans in the previous two seasons. With the departure of Robert Earnshaw to Cardiff we are becoming desperate for that 20 goal a season striker.  In the eyes of many fans David McGoldrick, Marcus Tudgay and Joe Garner are not going to cut it (although I personally rate Joe Garner very highly) and Dexter Blackstock is still injured until December time.

We have released McKenna, our club captain and defensive midfield back-up, and it looks increasingly likely we are losing Guy Moussi, our starting defensive midfielder, so realistically we will need some central midfield options too. We only have two centre backs, although we have two very promising young players in Jamaal Lascelles and Karlton Watson who will probably have to step up this year due to lack of other options for Steve.

We have been linked to some exciting talent this summer but I can’t see Forest managing to persuade many of them to pull on the Garibaldi next year. However that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t love to sign any of the players who are seemingly slipping away. Of these, my top priorities would be:

Nicky Shorey
Nicky Maynard
Wayne Routledge
Siphiwe Tshabalala

Wesley Verhoek
Ashley Westwood or other central midfield option.

We really have such a small squad that 5 or 6 quality transfers are a must.

George: Which are the most realistic targets? 

Brian: We are currently linked with Daryl Murphy, Bolo Zenden, George Boateng and Jonathan Greening, which for me is one of the most uninspiring lists in football. Steve is so concerned with the lack of signings that he has been unable to join the team at pre-season boot camp in Portugal and has deemed it necessary to stay behind and “help Mark Arthur bring in players” – how this man is still our chief executive is beyond me.

Indeed I’m barely able to work with the constant refreshing of the official site so desperate am I for news!

George: Obviously you’ve remarked on your small squad, but is there anyone who needs to go?

Brian: We’ve released 9 which includes Bennett, Adebola, Tyson, Earnshaw, McKenna, Rodney, Wilson, Boyd (loan), Konchesky (loan) and probably Moussi to follow, so in my opinion that is most of our ‘dead wood’, Earnshaw and Moussi withstanding as I would have liked to keep those two. I had no problem with losing the majority of these players as at one point it seemed we were going to replace them, but now that this looks unlikely, I would be loathe to lose anyone else. However, weak links in the team are McGoldrick, McCleary and maybe Tudgay – and we will see if they can come good.

George: With all this doom and gloom around investment in the squad, where do you see Forest finishing next season?

Brian: At this point I would bite your hand off if you offered me top half of the league although I can see us 15^th-18^th as our squad stands. 3^rd favourites, as some bookies have us, is simply laughable. If we had got any of the early rumoured players I mentioned… Top half would be doable!

George: Where you would be happy with?

Brian: Play-offs right now, but it really is a distant dream with the current size of the squad!

Sign one player:  Shorey or Maynard… probably Shorey

Sell one player:   McGoldrick for £1m+

Happy with your manager:  Yep, nothing Steve can do about lack of investment

If your second kit could be one colour what would it be:  Purple and turquoise like our 1993/94 away kit

Favourite player ever:  Stan Collymore

Worst player ever: Silenzi – for me this signing signals the start of our once great club’s demise

BCC Football: Can West Ham bounce straight back?

West Ham’s season was an unmitigated failure – and the supporters clearly hope that the only way is up from the low of relegation and Grant’s dismissal. Here, I talk to Anna about Big Sam, the controversial board, and which players they simply have to keep hold of in order to bounce straight back to the Premiership.

Jess: At whose door do you lay the blame for this season’s relegation? Grant clearly wasn’t a very good manager, with actually a very decent squad, but he certainly wasn’t helped by the public courting of Martin O’Neill in January, and various other manifestations of a lack of board-level confidence that we witnessed throughout the season. Thoughts?

Anna: I think the blame has to lie with the board. And not just for hiring Avram in the first place – our problems really started when Zola was sacked at the end of last season. Because despite his faults (and I personally didn’t think he was a very good manger either) he was well-liked by the players, and I don’t think anyone at West Ham was happy with the way he was dismissed. And perhaps on paper AG was the better manager of the two, but there was a lot of bad feeling in the dressing room after Zola’s dismissal, and so AG, never charismatic at the best of times, got off on the wrong foot at West Ham, and never managed to win the players over after that.

But again, the fault is with the board because everyone could see that AG was never going to turn it around at West Ham by January, and I do think that things could have been very different if the board hadn’t made such a public shambles of trying to hire Martin O’Neill. Karren Brady texting the players to ask whether or not Grant should be sacked, and constantly badmouthing him in her Sun column was just unbelievable; for me that was the real low point of the season – worse than getting relegated, even – because the board just turned us into a complete laughing stock, to the point where Martin O’Neill felt that he couldn’t accept the job, and everyone started to feel sorry for Grant because of the extent of public humiliation he was subjected to.  I suppose even Gold, Sullivan and Brady realised after January that things were never going to work out with AG, but by then they had burned their bridges with anyone who might have touched the job before that by behaving so unprofessionally, and we had to wait until the end of the season to replace him.

That said, I’m feeling quite positive about next season. I’ve never been a fan of Sam Allardyce, and I agree with what the other fans are saying about not wanting us to become another Bolton, but for me us signing Kevin Nolan last week was something of a turning point in the way I think about Big Sam. Not just because it was such a great signing – Nolan’s exactly the kind of captain and player that we need to succeed in the Championship – but because it was so obvious that a major factor in Nolan deciding to come to West Ham was because he wanted another chance to play under Allardyce. And I don’t think you can underestimate the importance of having a manager who players actively want to play for.

Jess: As you say, things are looking up for West Ham. For all his perceived faults, I have to agree that Allardyce is the right sort of manager to take West Ham back up to the Prem and the signing of Nolan was a brilliant one. Do you think the board have learnt their lesson and are going to take a more patient/professional approach this season? I’m not sure Big Sam would tolerate the level of disrespect that AG was subjected to anyway. Do you see him taking West Ham straight back up? And what are the consequences if he doesn’t?

Anna: I like to think that the board have learnt their lesson. The other positive that I’m taking from the recent signings of Faye and Nolan is that they are so obviously Allardyce’s choices – I’m hoping this year that the board leave Allardyce to do his thing with minimal interference from them, unlike last season when Brady was allegedly sending AG countless emails questioning his managerial decisions. I think you’re right to think that Big Sam just wouldn’t stand for that sort of thing too.

I really hope that we go straight back up, and I’m actually starting to think that we could. Big Sam knows it’s what he’s been hired to do: the Olympic Stadium means that we have to be back up by 2012, or the club will be in serious danger of going under. I must admit there’s a part of me that, when we it became clear that we were seriously facing relegation, thought that it might be a positive thing in the long run if it meant that it the Olympic Stadium (or Westfield Stadium ffs) fell though – I probably would have taken relegation if it meant we could stay at Upton Park. It looks like nothing’s going to stop the move though, so returning to the premiership is more important than ever before

Jess: In that case, which are the players you have to keep hold of? Obviously we’ve talked about Nolan coming in, but who do you expect to lose? In terms of getting back into the Premiership, which players do you really need to keep?

That is a very timely question – today is the day that Big Sam is meeting Carlton Cole, Scott Parker and Robert Green face to face to discuss their futures at West Ham. I’d be surprised if any of them stuck around, but of the three of them it’s Scott Parker that I’ll be sorriest to see go, not just because he’s such a brilliant player but also because I think he does such a good job of motivating the other players, which will be more important than ever this season. The losses we’ll feel the most next season are definitely Parker and Greeny, but Nolan is an excellent substitute for Parker, and he’ll make a far better captain than Upson ever did. There’s talk of us signing Sorensen from Stoke too, and I think we could do a lot worse than him goalkeeper-wise.

To be honest there’s a lot of players I’m glad to see the back of: Kovac, Gabbidon and McCarthy because they just weren’t very good; Obinna because he completely gave up on us; and Upson because he could never be bothered in the first place. I know I’m hopelessly optimistic, but I love the idea of us using relegation as a chance to get rid of all the deadwood, and then coming back up stronger in 2012.  I’m glad that Hines, Spence and Collison have been so vocal about their desire to stay, and it will be nice to see them getting a bit more first team action this season. There are definitely big gaps in the team to be filled though, and I’m already worrying about how our injury-prone players are ever going to cope with 46 games. In the short term, with Demba Ba gone and Carlton Cole looking likely to do the same I’m hoping Big Sam signs us a striker next.

Sign one player: If I can have anyone, Carlos Tevez. If I have to be realistic, DJ Campbell

Sell one player: Julien Faubert

Happy with your manager: Surprisingly, yes. At the moment anyway

If your second kit could be one colour what would it be: white with the claret and blue hoops. It can’t ever be just one colour

Favourite player ever: Paulo di Canio

Worst player ever: Nigel Quashie, or Radoslav Kovac

So can West Ham bounce straight back into the Premiership? Continue the debate with Anna at @annasteadman.

Jess – Head of Content – Gooner – @jessicaenoch

BCC Football: King Kenny’s hard work starts now

Liverpool’s season, which got off to a disastrous start, turned the sharpest of corners in January, when Roy Hodgson was dismissed and replaced with ‘King’ Kenny Dalgleish. With almost immediate effect, he turned things around, spreading delight across the red half of Liverpool and guiding them to a 6^th place finish that had seemed nigh on impossible at the beginning of this year. However, as James argues below, the hard work starts now…

Jess: Where do you see Liverpool going under King Kenny? The signings of Carroll and Henderson, and interest in Downing, suggest a revived focus on English players – is this a welcome move in your opinion? And is it these sorts of new players that can lead Liverpool to Champions League qualification next season?

James: The appointment of King Kenny was a masterstroke by the new owners FSG. It automatically got LFC fans on-side after a very turbulent period of disappointment under the Hicks and Gillett regime. Dalglish’s reappointment evoked pride and passion from the glory days of yesteryear that was essential to restore the supporter’s faith and confidence in the club’s future.  

Liverpool FC has always prided itself on being a club with a strong youth system. From the days of McManaman, Fowler, Murphy, Owen and Matteo to the modern day Gerrard, Carragher, Johnson and Spearing they are always keen to give English youngsters a chance. This season was a prime example with the likes of John Flanagan and Jack Robinson being given a first team chance by Kenny in the bigger games and performing well. Kenny has shown by his investment in Carroll and now Henderson (to the tune of £55million) that he values home grown players. Many see the investment in Henderson as a positive but whether or not he is worth the £20m price tag remains to be seen.

There is a need at LFC for players that can perform today as oppose to the future philosophy strategy that is wearing thin with fans after a series of high profile disappointments. The focus on English players is welcomed on Merseyside, but to be a success in the modern game there has to be a balance between home-grown and continental talent. The signing of Adam Johnson looks unlikely now and as a result Liverpool seem to have turned their attention to Wigan’s winger Charles N’Zogbia who I feel will be a great addition to the squad having been knocking on the doors of top clubs for a few years now.

Jess: I think that’s a really good point about success today. As good as principles are, football fans are ultimately incredibly fickle and short-sighted, and as an Arsenal supporter, I know how hard it can be to put faith in a manager with a long-term project. On the other hand, Kenny is a virtual god on Merseyside so maybe supporters would grant him a little more of their patience. What are the expectations of him next season from the fans’ POV? Will only a top four finish be good enough? And if Kenny didn’t achieve this, how long would FSG give him?

James: Kenny’s honeymoon period is certainly over. He had nothing to lose last season when he took over but the hard work begins in August. Luis Suarez recently claimed that the title was the aim for next season, but more realistically it must be to gain Champions League football once more, an opinion recently echoed by Steven Gerrard. However if this is to be a reality there needs to be further investment as the likes of Aurelio, Spearing, N’Gog, Agger and other fringe players cannot compete with the likes of Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City and even Spurs. In fairness, after what can be described politely as a slow start for Lucas at LFC he really did step up to the plate last season, putting in a series of great performances and even winning the player of the season award.

With all the history and success that Kenny brings I don’t think it will be the end of the world if he didn’t get top four next season from a fan’s perspective but from the owners’ perspective this may not be the case, given the vast investment they have pumped into the club in such a short space of time.

However, if he didn’t achieve top four that would without doubt mean the likes of Reina, Suarez and even Gerrard would have no choice but to reconsider their options and possibly jump ship for Champions League football elsewhere. It is a double ended sword as it is also harder to attract world class players when you cannot offer them the CL stage. I think that Reina especially has taken last season as a bad blip but I don’t expect he nor other top players will be as accommodating if it were to be the case second time round. I don’t see FSG as a group who make knee-jerk decisions, they know how important it is to have the fans onside and Kenny ensures this, so I would say worst case scenario Kenny is safe for two years or so. I think Liverpool are two or three big signings away from the top 4.

FSG have seen what a lack of blanket investment did to the club under Benitez with Hicks and Gillette and will be wary of this. They are without doubt in for the long haul, especially having just signed a new long term kit supplier deal with US firm Warrior and given their track record in sports team ownership they realise miracles cannot happen overnight. The only chance of a miracle happening hinges upon their willingness to match Chelsea and Manchester City toe to toe in the transfer market as unfortunately in today’s game money does dictate success…

Jess: Re your last line, depressing but true. So who are these two or three signings? Names or positions/type.

James: Summer targets for Liverpool aim to redress the lack of quality to support Steven Gerrard in midfield. Liverpool’s first team can at times be a match for anyone but there is a distinct lack of quality in depth. While Meireles and Maxi had a good end to the season it was the vulnerability of Jay Spearing and Lucas Leiva who showed great form on numerous occasions but are still capable of errors that could cost you games on a far too regular basis. Also, these players are not going to win you the league.

Jordan Henderson has been recruited and whilst a good talent, he is still very raw and showed in the England Euro Championships this week that he has a lot to do to prove himself. He is no longer a big fish in a small pond up at the Stadium of Light. Other names bandied about are the Real Madrid defensive midfielder Gago, seen as a like for like replacement for Mascherano who was never replaced and then also even Joey Barton whose name has cropped up on local radio stations on Merseyside.

Many also believe that Joe Cole can step up to the plate after an injury ravaged season but I feel to rely on him is too great a risk. Alberto Aquilani has been plying his trade well back in Italy on loan in Juventus. Many feel he was never given a fair chance under Benitez and that injuries plagued him, but I fear he is too lightweight for the Premier League.

Other areas that need to be strengthened include the wings and word on the street is that a deal for N’Zogbia is very close subject to a medical; this would be a great addition. Dirk Kuyt is a renowned workhorse and his effort can never be faulted but if LFC are to get the best out of Andy Carroll this is an area that needs to be strengthened. Stewart Downing’s name was also touted and if Ashley Young were to leave Villa for Man Utd it is feasible that he would follow Young out the door with Liverpool a likely destination. He would be a fantastic addition.

Finally the other position that needs to be strengthened is left back. Paul Konchesky came and went last season after a string of poor performances. Fabio Aurelio is far too injury prone to be relied upon. Possible replacements include Jose Enrique from Newcastle or even Gael Clichy of Arsenal whose agent has recently made noises of him wanting away from the Emirates. With Arsenal having a direct and able replacement in Kieran Gibbs you wouldn’t put it past Clichy moving on for one last big pay day….

Clichy is an example of a player that I believe I’ve seen regress at Arsenal over the last couple of seasons, and yet Gibbs is simply too injury prone to take his position as first-choice left back. Then again, if we were to sign Baines for example, I wouldn’t be too worried about seeing Clichy (who is only 25 years old by the way – so potentially more than one big pay day ahead) out the door to Anfield. With the rise of Manchester City (who no doubt will be able to attract even better players with the promise of Champions League football) and Spurs no doubt hungry to repeat 2010’s top 4 finish, it will be interesting to see where Liverpool, and their significant investment, fit in next season.

Finally, the Football Water Cooler brings you a new feature – quick-fire questions from our contributors. So, for James…

Sign one player: Lionel Messi

Sell one player: Christian Poulson

Happy with your manager: King Kenny, after second half of season success and his history with the club – of course!

If your second kit could be one colour what would it be: Black, anything but blue!

Favourite player ever: Steven Gerrard/Steve McManaman

Worst player ever: Igor Biscan/Djimi Traore

 

To challenge – or perhaps agree with – James, find him on Twitter at @J_Culverhouse.

Jess – Head of Content – Gooner – @jessicaenoch

BCC Football: Will Abramovich’s impatience lead to Champions League glory?

This post started with me posing the following question to Emily, a lifetime Chelsea fan: “Arsenal’s patience with Wenger or Chelsea’s trigger-happy attitude to dispensing with managers? Both finished trophyless this season but what’s the better approach?” However, having accepted her point that it is a little naive of me (alas) to compare Arsenal and Chelsea’s recent (emphasis on the recent – never forget that Chelsea have no history. But I digress) trophy record, the conversation turned to whether Roman’s expectations are acceptable, and who should be Chelsea’s next manager…

Jess: As an Arsenal fan, obviously I’m frustrated with how this (and previous) seasons have gone. However, Arsenal fans (though a decling number of us I accept) find it hard to envisage a future without Wenger. There’s an understanding that he has embarked on a long-term project with Arsenal, based around youth development, instilling a certain style of play throughout all rungs of the club, and changing habits and diets etc, and that this stability will ultimately lead to silverware. Clearly, these assumptions have been majorly challenged as another season ended pathetically and trophyless, but what is striking is the stark contrast with Chelsea’s (by which I suppose I mean Roman’s) approach to winning trophies – after a season without silverware, having won the Double the season before, Ancelloti was out the door. Is this fair enough? Obviously it’s Roman’s club, so to an extent he can do what he wants, but was he wise to sack Carlo? And in general, don’t you think that it would ultimately be better for Chelsea’s trophy hunt if Abramovich meddled less – giving managers stability of tenure and a bit more independence?

Emily: I guess I’m quite split about whether it was a good idea to sack Carlo. On the one hand, it strikes me that Roman is acting like a petulant child, throwing his toys out of the pram yet again because he hasn’t got what he wants. Having won the double in his first season, I think it would have been fair to give Ancelotti a little more time. On the other hand, I don’t think it makes sense to compare our one trophyless season to Arsenal. People talk about how destructive the Chelsea instability could be, but ultimately the facts speak for themselves. Yes, we have had 6 managers in Roman’s 8 years at the club, but in that time we have won 10 trophies (if you count the Community Shield as a cup – potentially tenuous I know). Compare that to Arsenal’s barren run and it becomes difficult to argue that ‘stability’ leads to success. As a lifelong Chelsea supporter, it was literally a dream come true to see Chelsea win the league and for my parents and grandparents who had waited far longer than I have, how can we complain about a strategy that for the most part has brought incredible success? As for independence, there I probably agree with you. You can see when you watch Abramovich at games that he is genuinely excited by football – it is like his own real life Football Manager game he gets to play. For him, I think Chelsea is more than just a business concern for all that money he has poured in; he has a real passion for the game and as a man who is used to getting what he wants, I think he is slightly frustrated that to an extent things are out of his control. That’s why he can’t help himself but buy players like Shevchenko, thinking if he can just make his own little changes, maybe he will get the ultimate rewards he is looking for. And that kind of interference can certainly lead to disaster and a team of conflicting individuals. Whether the same will be true of Torres remains to be seen. To pay £50mil mid-season is a debate in itself, and in a way it is surprising to have expected anything better from thrusting an unfit player, unused to the system, into the team in the middle of the season and hope for miracles. Hopefully with a proper pre-season, full fitness and some confidence, Torres will prove himself to be a good buy. And with Hiddink hopefully back, maybe we will finally get the Champions League winning combination that we’ve all been hoping for!

Jess: Unfortunately, as a Gooner, I do have to admit that the trophy record speaks for itself. Clearly winning the Champions League is the benchmark for managerial success at Chelsea. If Hiddink does come back, do you think he’ll be given any longer than Ancelloti? Or actually do you think Roman is only getting more impatient?

Emily: It’s such a hard thing to tell – he is certainly unpredictable. Interestingly, Hiddink has the best win record of all our managers in recent years, even Mourinho, and the fact that Abramovich has continued to use Hiddink as an informal consultant since he left shows he has an enormous amount of trust and respect for him as a manager. As we’ve seen it takes a massive amount of luck as well as anything else to win the Champions League and it is interesting to wonder whether Avram Grant would still be the manager if Terry hadn’t slipped on that fateful day in Moscow! I would hope Roman will give Hiddink more time, as I think Chelsea are in a bit of a transitional period – we lost a lot of senior players last year without properly replacing them, and the ‘spine’ of our team is certainly getting older. After some talk of focusing on youth and a smaller squad, with buys like Torres and Luiz in January and rumoured many more over the summer it looks like there is going to be major rejuvenation. Combining some big buys with the experience we have in Lampard and Terry, and the youth of players like McEchran will hopefully bring further success, but as we have seen from Torres, it is going to take some time for that elusive gelling of players. I hope that Abramovich can appreciate that…I think that because Hiddink has been his target for a few years now, he will be reluctant to dismiss him too quickly – if anything, because we have gone through most managers with impressive CVs already! Hiddink is hugely popular with the fans, the players respect him and Abromavich has coveted him for years…as a fan it makes me nervous, if this doesn’t work – what will?!

Jess: I’m not sure Grant would have stayed even if he had won the Champion’s League; especially with hindsight from his disastrous season at West Ham, I’m not sure how great a manager he is, he was just lucky to be left with a great team! To that extent, maybe Hiddink, respected hugely by Abramovich, would be given the time he needs to build a CL winning team. For my final question then, is he your number one choice to fill the seat left by Carlo?

Emily: I agree, I don’t think Grant would still be at Chelsea, nor would I particularly want him, but it definitely was a bit of a sliding door moment in Chelsea’s history – had we won, Abramovich may have been a calmer and more patient owner. Saying that, given what we were saying earlier about our success record coming from constant change– ironically it could have been the last thing we won, or Roman may have got bored from the success and moved on. For me, Hiddink has to be the man. Personally I wouldn’t have got rid of Ancelotti as I think his record speaks for itself, he adapted quickly to the Premiership and he had plenty of other factors to deal with this year with Wilkins leaving/injuries etc. But, seeing as he has gone, Hiddink seems to be the best bet. In all honesty, there don’t seem to be many viable options – yes, a Mourinho return would bring excitement to the headlines, and I would love it for the enjoyment of seeing such a good looking man talk so passionately about the team I love but realistically the football we played under him was not all that enjoyable to watch (other than the winning in itself) and I doubt the clash between him and Roman would not re-emerge. Guardiola obviously has an incredible record at such a young age and I’m sure could be inspirational – although, he himself admitted the ridiculously gifted players who surround him make his job look easy. Ultimately though, he looks committed to staying at Barcelona. As for Hughes, no thank you. To me, the fact that his name has even been suggested for the job is fairly laughable – given Roman’s ambition, to replace a man who has won the Champions League twice to a guy who steered his club to a hardly inspirational 9th place does not make any sense. The way he left Fulham so abruptly for bigger and better things also rankles me – he doesn’t seem to have much evidence to back up his clearly inflated sense of self worth. Of course, there have been some other names banded about – the idea of Redknapp or Benitez (one of the most hated managers from a Chelsea point of view) seems unlikely, perhaps Van Basten or Villas-Boas are more likely/credible options, but ultimately I believe Hiddink is the strongest candidate. What makes him so, I think, is the fact that he has been at Chelsea before, he has flourished, he wasn’t scared away and he can come back and do it again. Why take the risk with seeing how a new manager reacts to the players and higher powers when we know that we have a guy, itching to get back into club management, who has already proven that he can cope with this. Like I already said, we know the players respect him (Terry and others still keep in touch with him) and worked well under his particularly training methods, we know Abramovich respects him (a seemingly rare accolade) and we know the fans respect him (the passion in singing “we want you to stay” at the end of his interim season made for one of the loudest atmospheres at Stamford Bridge). Combined with the fact that I have met him and decided he is a lovely man, my vote goes to Guus.

So who do you think will/should be the next Chelsea manager? Would Abramovich sack even Hiddink if another season went by without a trophy? Or tell Emily what you think at @EmilyKraftman.

Jess – Head of Content – Gooner – @jessicaenoch

BCC Football: Sunderland and Bruce under the spotlight

This week’s blog focuses on Sunderland, who enjoyed a promising start to the season (notable successes including beating Chelsea 3-0 at Stamford Bridge) but whose results turned for the worse in 2011. I posed the suggestion to avid fan Ben Wilkinson that Bruce is no longer taking Sunderland forward. The way I saw it, they’re no longer a yo-yo team and need a new, more ambitious manager to reflect this. Would Ben agree? Editor in Chief George took up the debate with him…

Ben: The thing to remember about Bruce is that he’s a Geordie, so as soon as we have a slight chink in the armour that’s the first thing the fans chuck at him. If I’m honest, I would have preferred another appointment at the time, but the fact is SNQ went for Bruce.

For me, building a club and team takes time. In today’s world you rarely get that but I think Bruce will be given plenty more – a season anyway. Is he taking us backwards? The facts say no; miraculously we finished 10th and that was the aim. Now he’s achieved it, it sets the bar ever higher. So now we will see how he can wheel and deal to build a stronger team, we have mighty ambitions as fans. He certainly took us backward in the striker department; the Bent deal was good business, but how we ended up playing three games without a recognised striker is madness. Big summer ahead for Brucey.

George: Interesting that you back Bruce mate and refreshing that you give a nod to giving a manager time to build a club. I’m a big advocate of that.

My question to many football fans though is what do you think is realistically possible next season or the season after that? Should Sunderland be focussing on trying to win a cup or are you chasing a Europa league spot and then a top four finish? Are these expectations possible under Bruce? You had a real chance to lift silverware this year, but you bombed out of both cup comps at home to opponents you realistically should have beaten.

Ben: My problem with your question is that we’re football fans and therefore by nature we’re never realistic!  If we were realistic we’d probably never invest so much love and passion in our clubs, or we’d all support Utd. 

So, my realistic ambition for Sunderland next term is 6th spot.  Ambitious yes, but we’ve got to aim high.  I think we’re in a good state off the pitch, which has to help, but it’s on the pitch where it counts.  I have my doubts if this is possible under Bruce but if you look at the positives of last season we were flying until Christmas so as long as we can get a decent replacement for Bent (and don’t sell him in January) we’ll have every chance.

A decent cup run would be nice, we’ve been a terrible cup side lately but these days every side sacrifices the cups for Premiership.  Apart from Birmingham and I know where I’d rather be.  Getting into 6th would be a huge achievement and then who knows – I’d have to aim for top four the year after… what did I just say about football fans and realistic?

George: I agree entirely that football fans are never realistic and to save this conversation going on all day I won’t say whether I think you will achieve top 6 next season.

My problem with very unrealistic football fans, and that’s not a reference to you, is that there expectations often lead to the sacking of a manager. So my final question is this… if you don’t win a cup next season and are sat 10th again, or even 9th would you be calling for Bruce’s head? Do you think other fans are? How many seasons of consistent top ten finishes but not winning a cup or qualifying for the Euro two bob cup will you take?

Ben: Personally I think a good solid 9th/10th place finish would still be a decent result for Sunderland.  Bruce can’t afford to go backwards but I think he should have time.  I know many fans are calling for his head after this season, but that mainly comes back to the Geordie issue.

Managers constantly get fired and if we’re in a stable position we just can’t afford to make a change that will ultimately mean we start the building process again.  Over the next five seasons I’d take several top tens with maybe one glory season – a cup final or Europa Cup – it’s not been long since we were yo-yoing and this would be a massive step up from those days.

After that? I’m pretty sure we’ll win the league in year six and UCL in the seventh…

Not so much a harsh dose of realism from Ben then, but I’m definitely on the same page – much better to dream than support United. An interesting debate that has implications beyond just Sunderland; for mid-table teams, what exactly does success look like? Or more pertinently, what can it look like on a relatively limited budget compared to Citys and Chelseas of this world? Feel free to leave your comments, re-start the debate with Ben on Twitter @BenWilko, or do get in touch if you’d like to discuss the big issues around your team with us. ‘Til next time…

Jess – Head of Content – Gooner – @jessicaenoch

BCC Football: Kick Off

The idea for the Football Water Cooler blog came from a genuine email chat between George, our Editor-in-Chief and me – that has been only slightly amended for public consumption. A few posts on Twitter became a more meaty discussion via email (this is a bigger issue than 140 characters could possibly contain), which now forms the basis of our first post.

The expectations of Arsenal fans and the reaction to recent ticket price increases.

 

George: I don’t understand why fourth isn’t good enough for the Gunners. Do Arsenal fans need to lower their expectations?

Jess: It’s not good enough on the basis of rhetoric from the players and manager about challenging for the title, and our alleged “mental strength” and desire. Plus the fact that as late as March we were in a position where we’d win the league if we won all our games. Now we will probably come fourth and have to play an awkward qualifier for the Champions League – and pay more money to watch that game.

George: but surely fourth is good enough in terms of spend on players and the fact that Arsenal are without a trophy for a few years now, which is surely where expectations should come from. I think generally football fans need to spend more time supporting than expecting. Saying that, the fans pay their hard earned money so are entitled to think, say and expect what they like.

Jess: I’m lucky that I’ll still be able to go to Arsenal next season. But there was A LOT of discontent at the match on Sunday regarding the 6.5% season ticket price increase. A lot of “six percent, you’re having a laugh” and the players booed off at half time. For Arsenal fans this stark juxtaposition of the hike in prices and a pathetic display like Sunday is just too much to bear. I think that at somewhere like Arsenal, the very extent of the elevated ticket prices means the focus is taken away from simple supporting – we can’t help but feel like investors in the club’s success, given the amount we spend on our tickets. I don’ t think you can get away from the fact that the level of investment fans make in the club breeds expectation.

George: In my outsider opinion, the problem is with Arsenal fans and the almost catch 22 position you lie in. From what I know, Arsenal fans pride themselves on the fact that they aren’t in debt, they aren’t owned by foreigners (historically / at the mo), they breed young talent, etc etc. They’re run as a business, they’re solvent. In my eyes, as the club is ran that way, which I think is something to be hugely proud off, the price hike is down to simple economics. The demand is there so they’ve upped their prices. It’s as simple as that. Arse will still sell out next season and fans will still come as there is a long waiting list at Emirates. In summary, surely you can’t be proud of your club being run that way, then not expect the profit-driven decisions to come.

Jess: I think that’s true to an extent, although fans are very fickle, and for me, that pride mainly comes out when stats are released about Man City’s debt for example. Though you’re probably right, I would guess that most supporters are more pro the self sustaining model. In fact, I’ve even seen some accept that a 6.5% increase equals 4% inflation + 2.5% VAT rise, so it’s not so ridiculous; but you can’t deny that announcing the rise at exactly the point when the season is imploding is very undiplomatic timing…

However, not all Gooners think in the way you suggest, putting pride about our business model above all else; most want more spending under the current regime, and some even wish for a big money backer (not going to be Kroenke from how he’s managed his businesses in the past). My view is that while we aren’t going to spend £50 mil on Torres (and quite right too), surely there is a middle ground where we could pay £15 mil, say, for a decent centre half and remain self-sustaining, solvent and all those other good things. We moved to the Emirates to challenge Manchester United – scrimping and saving in the first few years was defensible, but it’s been five years in the new stadium now without a visible reward for the fans. I know that might sound spoilt to teams battling relegation, and clubs with no money in the lower leagues, and you might be right that recent history suggests we should lower our expectations – but there is no denying that they have been built up by the club, the players and the manager at various points and in various ways.

Finally, and (sadly) your point about supply and demand is spot on. For example Wigan season tickets are bloody cheap (for the Premiership). But they have no supporters (relatively). A lot of fans in the ground actually support Man U and Liverpool, and just go to Wigan because it’s so affordable (I heard this from talking to fans when I went to Wigan this season – the shambolic 2-2 draw only slightly less shambolic than the 3-2 defeat last season). The prices are low because the demand isn’t there.

I hope you enjoyed our first BCC Football post – please leave your comments below, and let us know if you’d like to be added to the panel to take part in future discussions about your team.

 

Jess – Head of Content – Gooner – @jessicaenoch